California Earthquake Probable Within 30 Years

An earthquake in California is likely to happen within 30 years.

Experts from the US Geological Survey said a new model predicts a major earthquake will occur in California within the next 30 years.

The recent report said there is a more than 99 percent chance of a size 6.7 or larger earthquake, and a 46 percent chance the quake will be magnitude 7.5 or greater.

"You have to realize this is a very long pregnancy, and it is way overdue," Southern California Qauke Center director Tom Jordan said.

USGS said the quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the state.

The agency said on Monday that the probability of a size 6.7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years is 67 percent for the greater Los Angeles area and 63 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area. Which is the size of the 1994 Northridge quake, which killed 57 people and $10 billion in damage.

The new predictions reflect geologists' better understanding about surprise earthquakes from previously unknown faults, such as the hidden blind-thrust fault system that triggered the Northridge quake, and other new faults discovered after quakes at Landers, Big Bear Lake and in the desert near Twentynine Palms.

The probabilities were calculated using a model that combined information from seismology, earthquake geology and the measurement of precise locations on Earth's surface.

The "Uniform California Quake Rupture Forecast" was developed by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities and evaluated by an independent scientific review panel, as well as the California and National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Councils.